Correction to the pessemistic Q3 and Q4 Zacks estimates.
Here's what the numbers will ACTUALLY come in at for the
next two quarters.
Rolling yr/yr yr/yr
Rev EPS 4Q EPS Rev EPS
FY96 Q1 1,136 0.14 0.51 48% 162%
Q2 1,205 0.17 0.59 52% 106%
Q3 1,415 0.19 0.66 60% 60%
Q4 1,539 0.18 0.67 49% 3%
FY97 Q1 1,638 0.21 0.74 44% 53%
Q2 1,690 0.29 0.86 40% 74%
Q3 2,000 0.39 1.06 41% 108%
Q4 2,400 0.51 1.39 56% 189%
FY98 Q1 2,580 0.54 1.72 58% 157%
Q2 2,810 0.59 2.03 66% 105%
Q3 3,175 0.67 2.30 59% 71%
Q4 3,493 0.73 2.53 46% 45%
This assumes dell follows through on Meridth's comments about
low teens qtr/qtr growth for Q3 and ~10% for Q4. Historically it's
been >15% for both quarters so, this too is a tad
cautious and reflects slowing growth.
One thing is certain however, triple digit growth for EPS is truly
over and should stabalize in the 40-55 percent range till 2000.
With EPS and Revenue growth rates settling down more into
lockstep, this stock should be able to maintain a
"forward PE" of ~35.
This stock is great for folks on the longside but for you shorts out there...
give it up man! How can so called experienced traders short a stock when the
odds are at least 3 to 1 that they will likely get squeezed out of their
position and LOSE MONEY. Pros only trade on the
side in which the odds favor a profitable outcome.
Also, about those technical indicators, show me an indicator
(or group of indicators with time values so I can backtest it)
that have accurately
predicted the intermediate term bahavior of this stock...
STOCHASTICS, MACD, BOP, RSI, ROC, MoneyFlow,
Price patterns ect. ect. show me!
Try this one out. Go back to Oct of 93.
Calculate how much you would have made if you traded this
stock every day and somehow managed to buy at the low and
sell at the high on up days and short at the high and cover
on the low for down days (factor in commisions). Apply any
reasonable scaling factor of probability to the daytrade
strategy and compare to the buy and hold strategy.
So this thread should be called the "DELL sub-optimal
trading strategy INDECISION SITE" <ggg>
Long on Dell and yes... it is somewhat temporarily
overvalued at this point but not a candidate for shorting!
MEATHEAD |
