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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

+2.7%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15263)	5/19/2004 6:04:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) of 95616

To the Thread, The end of the day tomorrow should be interesting if SEMI stays on its projected schedule for releasing data for the month of April. Publication is usually about 6:00pm PCT. With all the differences of opinion on the health of the semi-equip market going forward, another bookings data point for April is of great interest. The following table shows the bookings "increases and decreases" since January 1995. This is the same data that Gottfried has charted over the past years and is available for everyone's viewing. The table(s) below are oriented a little differently to show the up and down cycles of Bookings since the beginning of 1995 through the last data available, March of 2004. I have broken the table into 2 parts, and put one of them beneath the other. The up/down cycles are quite obvious. At the bottom of the table(s) is shown the cycle total, the cycle average, and the run average. The big issue tomorrow will be the Bookings number for April. Where will it be compared to the March number. The bookings number has increased since July 2003, but last month, it was only 5M higher than the February number. Are we going to roll over tomorrow and start another negative cycle, or is the number going to continue on to new heights? - Monthly Bookings Numbers($M) - Jan 95 Mar 96 Oct 96 Nov 97 Oct 98 - thru thru thru thru thru Months Feb 96 Sep 96 Oct 97 Sep 98 Oct 00 1 892 1447 833 1599 638 2 995 1361 952 1550 767 3 1119 1187 1078 1363 883 4 1180 1175 1116 1233 997 5 1140 992 1101 1123 1029 6 1192 882 1265 1102 1257 7 1124 778 1386 1107 1405 8 1102 1421 933 1514 9 1132 1474 718 1561 10 1209 1659 572 1531 11 1295 1688 481 1565 12 1499 1774 1511 13 1607 1835 1610 14 1687 1695 15 1908 16 2227 17 2302 18 2547 19 2716 20 2778 21 2859 22 2902 23 2984 24 2888 25 2993 Total 17174 7822 17582 11781 47063 Cy Ave 1227 1117 1352 1071 1883 Run Ave 1227 1190 1252 1208 1449 - Monthly Bookings Numbers($M) - Nov 00 Dec 01 Aug 02 Jul 03 Total - thru thru thru thru All Months Nov 01 Jul 02 Jun 03 Mar 04 Years 1 2707 629 1017 732 2 2372 645 832 779 3 1854 737 775 871 4 1611 836 777 923 5 1197 996 827 1181 6 721 1105 739 1226 7 723 1171 761 1316 8 731 1182 777 1321 9 769 757 10 715 724 11 614 722 12 644 13 589 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Total 15248 7301 8707 8349 141027 Cy Ave 1173 913 792 1044 Run Ave 1406 1362 1301 1282

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