Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (50219)	5/20/2004 5:15:18 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 74559

A fun word problem - take current AECO hub price for NG (www.energyintel.com). Discount 8% for shipping, compression, etc. Convert to Canadian using what ever multipler you like 1.35 maybe.... Take this number, go to a Canadian trust web site, find the prices used for hedging. Calculate new effective price for unhedged + hedged production. Factor in increses roylaty & tax cost. Easier if you do hedged & ubhedged separately. Look at gross profit before capex. Figure a 15% increase in capex. Subtract capex and other expenses. What's left should be money avaiable for distributions. Compare this to last quarters... **************** For ERF I got about a 35% increase. for Paramount about 50%. WIth distributions of 9-16 % this increase`should move the stock price. And you get cash each month to buy something else...

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