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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: isopatch who started this subject5/20/2004 8:29:08 AM
From: jimsioi  Read Replies (2) of 108713
 
Fleckenstein, "the next time down.."

One of Bill's pieces has shown up on the PAAS Yahoo board and its worth a read...As many here think the general equity and economy are on borrowed time, and that the next time down will be a nasty recession with the FED boxed in unable to restimulate given the inflationary potential...

Bill's one pick is Silver and seemingly better the company with which he has long been associated PAAS. For silver to rise in a recession there will also have to be a considerable decline in the value of the dollar and investment demand flows to the metal as an alternative currency. Bill says:

"So what will create the investment demand? A change in psychology regarding the superiority of paper assets, precipitated by the ramifications in the financial markets of "the next time down." The demand for paper assets and dollars that we have witnessed in the last decade or so has been an expression of total confidence in the central planners at the Fed. If that confidence cracks, as I expect, and the dollar begins to be viewed as the Bernanke confetti it has become, demand for silver and gold will increase. Warren Buffett has eloquently articulated his bearish point of view of the dollar (and backed it up with $18 billion), so there is ample reason to be concerned about the dollar, even without the change in psychology precipitated by "the next time down."

Bill states the familiar bullish case for Silver and has some strong things to say about CDE...a view I have frankly long held....(see the three part post beginning below.....)
finance.messages.yahoo.com
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