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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: TimF who wrote (188940)5/21/2004 1:34:22 AM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1577030
 
I am looking at it from an economic theorem point of view......something to which you seem to relate well. The Palestinians have a much lower marginal value [MV]; hence they have less to lose.

If your stock investment is 100 shares that are worth $1 each or a million that are worth $100 each you can lose 100% either way. If you truly have nothing then there isn't much reason to care about losing 100% of nothing, but even the Palestinians do have the ability to lose. Things could get a lot worse for them.


You are ignoring the theorem. The one who has less to lose will take greater risks and be more willing to lose everything. Making this situation worse is the fact that the disparity between the haves [the Israelis] and the have nots [the Palestinians] is huge.

If one person has $.05 and the other $50k, who do you think will be more willing to lose all to get what they want? You've used econ. theory before with re. to agric. subsidies and other subjects. This is no time to be abandoning it.

Yes a wealthier person has more to lose, but both the Palestinians and the Israelis can lose everything and the Palestinians are IMO more likely to lose everything the the Israelis.

Like I said before, the Palestinians have little to lose. Very few own property.......most don't have businesses......they have few possessions.....that's why Hamas is so popular. Most live in refugee camps.

The most valuable thing they have to lose are their lives.....and what's Israel going to do.....kill them all? Unlikely.....Israelis are very sensitive to the issue of genocide for good reason.

Furthermore, Israelis value their own lives much more because of everything they have to gain by staying alive. What do Palestinians gain by staying alive......abject poverty, dead end lives, no career, little happiness etc. Why do you think dying as a martyr and seeing Allah are so popular?

However I think it more likely that something like the status quo will continue for awhile. I don't think either side will face genocide or "ethnic cleansing" any time soon.

That's right........and eventually, demographics will be the Israelis' undoing.

Its always much better to be in that position rather than the reverse.

I disagree. I'd rather have more to lose. Its usually better to be powerful and wealthy then it is to be poor and comparatively weak.


True..... but maintaining that power and wealth can be a tricky business.

There is grousing on the part of the Palestinians but its minor relative to the pain the Israelis are feeling.

I would say that the Palestinians are feeling a lot more pain, but we hear less griping because 1 - They are a bit more used to it, 2 - Griping against Hamas and the PLO is probably not very healthy in the Palestinian controlled areas.


You're rationalizing......where's the poster who is a strong believer in logic?

It looks to me that time is on the side of the Palestinians, not the Israelis.

I don't think time is really on anyone's side. The Palestinian population is growing faster but not enough to cause a major shift in the balance of power.


Check it out:

Israel's annual growth rate is 1.39% per annum.....I don't even think that's at replacement levels.

For West Bank Palestinians, its 3.3% per annum.......almost triple.

Israelis birth rate is 18.67 per 1k pop.

Palestinians is 34 per 1k pop......almost double.

Palestinians's fertility rate is double Israel's.

Like I side, demographics are not on Israel's side.

And don't forget that there are 1.2 million Palestinians living within Israel, producing children at a faster rate than the Israelis.....and then there are 3.0 million Palestinians in Jordan who are reproducing at a fast rate. Plus you have the 1 million+ who live in Gaza. Lets see........WB: 2 million; Israelis Arabs: 1.2 million; Gaza: 1 million; Jordan: 3 million. That's 7 million to Israel's 5 million.

Now what were you saying about the population shift not being enough?


ted
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