The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (14231)	5/21/2004 12:04:21 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

What's transpiring is a MoP attempt to shake out the energy speculators in similar fashion to the metals. As you say there is no fundamental basis (OPEC doesn't have two million/day more production) for significantly lower energy prices, so (like metals) this will be another false move. There is no way to avert natural gas (weather will be key, if it's a hot summer, this will be a mess), gasoline shortages. Looks like fuel oil for next winter is dicey too, beacon1.rjf.com just not enough refining capacity to stay ahead of the curve on this. The energy stocks are interesting and already discount $28/4.50. but I'm keeping my powder dry. They should offer a volatile and relatively brief panic buy opportunity similar to what developed in the metal stocks (which are now rallying back). I'd like to see the spec long position in the energy "subtotal", cut in half say below 150,000 at least, before I got "heavy" back in. commitmentsoftraders.com May not happen, but I'll stand aside just in case it does. Good fundamental story on the offshore drillers here: beacon1.rjf.com beacon1.rjf.com Maybe Little Joe (who I think made a great technical call on the metals), and Tooearly might chime in on the charts of these: ESV, GSF, RDC?

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