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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: gregor_us who wrote (14280)5/22/2004 9:49:04 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
there is a man being
interviewed on cnbc who looks like he could be selling
knives at your local outlet mall and while the sound
is down the caption reads "$100 oil?"

while i appreciate the short-term contrary indicatorness of such trumpeting on TV, consider what it means if the only people CNBS can drum up to talk bullish about oil look like knife salesmen lured away from the nearest mall kiosk.
CNBS can drum up any number of well-heeled Wharton grads wearing Patek Phillipes to wax poetic about flavor-du-jour 100-PE tech stocks that deserve the toilet bowl in reality, but when they want to find somebody bullish on oil, where are all the BoBos?

such is to say, imo significantly higher oil prices on a secular basis are not considered a serious possibility by the conformist investor industrial complex.

i can't tell you how many people i've talked to, who got their asses handed to them in the tech stock crash but nonetheless are "sure" oil is plentiful and if not, "they'll just find something else". everybody remembers that energy was the "sure thing" back in the early 80s and then fell apart, so they're sure it will fall apart again. (why this logic does not apply in spades to a bullish opinion on nosebleed tech stocks i don't know.)
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