Here's my processing on them, tell me what you think?
Fundamentally, I buy the Raymond James outlook laid out here.
beacon1.rjf.com
In fact when you read this, it makes you really wonder why on earth these expensive (high barriers of entry) offshore rigs are so underutilized in the midst of an energy Train Wreck? Maybe because the players continually hear footsteps because of all the manipulations, and market distortions that go on? And that resource exploration is unrewarded by the marketplace? No wonder this Train Wreck crisis won't go away.
But here's the dilemma for those that trade/invest in this. Notice the charts on the three names I'm mostly likely to use: GSF, RDC. ESV. RDC is sitting right here at a triple/6 support level.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
wallstreetview.com
But if it breaks that on a MoP squeeze job of long energy speculators, there is no support below. GSF has a double 8 support at 23.90, then double,8 and way down at 21.20.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
ESV has a good triple/9 at 25.20, and then no support below.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
So I want to see what happens when the MoP media/broker (or political economy, as Glenn puts it) appartchiks get their poms poms out and spew forth the nonsense about how the energy crisis has been "cured", and is going away, blah, blah, blah. My bet is that under that kind of frontal assault and high drama, I'll be able to size things up, and maybe even catch a panic sell-off low. And if it turns out these levels hold, and already discount it (which they do in theory, however ramped markets like this one can overshoot), then I should still have time to react. If we get a sudden geopolitical disruption, hurricane, or sustained heat wave (or all three at once, shit happens) that spoils the MoP's plans (and thus mine) to expediency squeeze the speculators, then my hat is off to the stout energy bulls, their reward would be righteous and well deserved. |
