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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 292.04+2.4%Dec 18 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (15380)5/24/2004 11:35:26 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95611
 
<<We just need to believe that institutions will buy and hold and that our economy will recover no matter how bad the next recession might appear to be at the time:>>

I would say the key in your above statement is:

<<We just need to believe that institutions will buy and hold>>, although I would replace the word "believe" with the word "know". <<We just need to know that institutions will buy and hold>>. And just how do we know that?

I have a lot of data from the October 9 time frame, but let me just post 4 bottom line numbers for the Group

Date        This Year Earnings      Next Year Earnings
9/26/02          -11.70                 5.94
10/24/02         -13.76                 1.86
10/31/02         -13.46                 0.58
11/14/02         -14.43                -1.11

How did the Group prices behave over this 7 week period? They did as follows. WFR was up 130 percent during this period. All the while earnings were "tanking".

Maybe I proved your point.:)

-      9/27/02 11/15/02
-	CLOSE	CLOSE	Pct
SYMBOL	PRICE	PRICE	Chg
AMAT	11.82	15.83	 34
ASML	 6.21	 9.04	 46
ASYT	 6.77	 5.95	-12
ATMI	13.72	20.32	 48
BRKS	11.93	13.46	 13
CMOS	 8.88	 8.49	 -4
COHU	11.49	14.62	 27
CYMI	19.01	33.43	 76
DPMI	22.55	23.30	  3
EGLS	 2.00	 2.22	 11
FSII	 3.45	 3.51	  2
HELX	 9.40	 9.95	  6
KLAC	28.68	38.02	 33
KLIC	 2.93	 4.01	 37
LRCX	 9.17	13.12	 43
LTXX	 4.99	 7.56	 52
MTSN	 1.79	 3.05	 70
NVLS	21.88	32.96	 51
PHTN	19.21	28.50	 48
PLAB	10.20	13.36	 31
SMTL	 5.01	 7.29	 46
TER	 9.81	12.55	 28
UTEK	 8.13	 9.38	 15
VECO	10.78	10.26	 -5
WFR	 3.30	 7.60	130
       263.11  347.78	 32
SOX-X  246.58  319.68	 30
COMPQX1199.16 1411.14	 18
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