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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 683.21+0.2%4:00 PM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (41209)5/25/2004 1:44:21 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) of 69374
 
07:19 Security software and hardware demand may cool off -- Barron's

Barron's highlights Symantec, which has seen its stock quadruple since 9/11. While security software and hardware has been a veritable haven during the corporate tech-spending drought, it's possible that the trend could be cooling off. At least, that is the conclusion of information-security analyst Kevin Trosian of Wedbush. In a refreshingly independent and thorough study of the industry, Mr Trosian initiated his coverage of the sector with a Neutral weighting, or Hold, compared to the rest of technology. While Trosian isn't saying that the sector will dry up and go away, the brokerage analyst is betting that its growth rate will be lower than what most of his peers are forecasting. He is predicting compound annual growth of about 15% through 2007. International Data Corp. expects around 18%. Simply put, most brokerage analysts plug IDC's market forecasts into their models, which in this case could inflate their valuations, Mr Trosian argues. "We believe IDC's market estimates are skewed. Based on our review of their ests, which many of our competitors take as gospel, we believe that IDC consistently overestimates the rate of growth in most areas of security spending," Trosian charges. But Trosian contends that technology buyers at big companies are going to buy more "internal" security products.
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