Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

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To: coferspeculator who started this subject	5/26/2004 9:55:19 AM
From: coferspeculator	of 14340

XAU- During the first week of May, the XAU meet its downside targets having a selling climax followed by volume off the bottom. All three actions are indicative of an ending action. The AR and ST that subsequently formed provided for the first opportunity to look at potential short term counts. Those counts have been obtained. The next target of 90 appears likely. The count from the LPS at 82 across to the PS at 82 provides for an aggressive count of 94. The midpoint is 92. This is an important area since it was the first downside target for the XAU from the UTAD's test from early January. This level became the ice level that the XAU fell through in April. This area should offer resistance to any advance. Equally important is the volume that has come in during the current up move. It hasn't been that great and that should be watched. On one hand the failure of heavier volume to be seen may be indicative that there isn't the degree of demand that will be required to break through these levels. That's true. On the other hand it should be noted that supply volume usually exhausts itself during the climaxing process so the first leg up usually doesn't have the volume that some might believe is necessary. The way to determine if the move will have legs is to watch the reaction that should be forthcoming shortly. Should the volume increase substantially and the spread widen that would be bearish for the short term. If the reaction that occurs takes place on lower volume and decreased spread, the subsequent LPS would provide a good time to take new positions or add to current ones. In this situation, the amount of cause that would be built up could provide targets that would take the XAU back up into its previous trading range (95-105).

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