Tivo update $7.68 5.27.04
AXXel’s TIVO Update
[TIVO-$7.68]
Using, AXXel Knutson’sVTAR™
May 27, 2004
[“Volume Trade Analysis Research”™]
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Tivo has been consolidating a major advance in the first six weeks of 2003 when it ran $5.00 to $14.51. That consolidation appears nearly complete and we think that the stock can now again approach and exceed the mid teens. Of course, there has been lots of speculation about cable companies installing their own Tivo-like DVR’s and this bound to happen but it is not happening with Comcast who announced today that they are going with Tivo and will have them available to their subscribers by year-end. Subscriber strength, earnings, revenues are all ahead of schedule and in our account structure we are not selling any shares at current levels and rate the stock a “strong buy” sub ten dollars. Here is the chart and recent earnings.
Axxel Knutson, CEO
TradingWeapon.com
TIVO Chart is courtesy of Clearstation.com
To listen to the recent quarterly broadcast regarding the financial results click on this link or stick it in your browser.
firstcallevents.com
In case you forgot or don’t know, this is what they do [in the remote chance that you don’t care, you may hit the beach and enjoy the rest of the day]:
Tivo Incorporated. The Group's principal activity is to provide television services for Digital video recorders (DVR's). Their subscription-based television service provides consumers with an easy way to record, watch and control television. The Group also offers advertisers, content creators and television networks a new platform for promotions, content delivery and audience research. The products and services are licensed to and used by SONY, Philips, Thomson Multimedia, and Hughes. The Group's services relies on three key components, the TiVo Client software platform consists of all operations required for TiVo enabled DVR to properly and reliably deliver the TiVo service. The TiVo Service infrastructure consists of a collection of server-side technologies developed and optimized by TiVo to enable the ongoing operations of TiVo services. The DVR Hardware Design provides the design to the contract manufacturer that produces TiVo-branded DVR's.
TIVO INC. (TIVO) [Source: Dow Jones News]
For the second quarter, expects revenue of $25 million
to $25.8 million. Reported a first-quarter loss of $9.2
million, or 11 cents a share; Wall Street expected a 20-
cent loss.
Tuesday Close: $7.55
Net Change: Up 16 cents
% Change: 2.2%
Volume: N/A
Strong Consumer Demand More than Triples Q1 Subscription Growth for TiVo; Lower Prices and Broad Availability Drive Record Results [Source: Tivo, Inc.]
5/25/2004 4:02:04 PM
DIRECTV with TiVo subscription additions grew nearly 5x compared to Q1 of last year; TiVo owned subscription additions nearly double in the same period Service revenues grew 74% in the quarter, compared to Q1 of last year Management reiterates plans to double subscription base in current year SAN JOSE, Calif., May 25, 2004 (PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX) -- TiVo, the creator of and a leader in television services for digital video recorders (DVRs), reported today that it added a record 264,000 subscriptions in the first quarter, more than three times the number added in Q1 of last year. Total cumulative subscriptions grew to nearly 1.6 million, more than double the subscription base TiVo reported a year ago. Net revenues for the quarter were $34.5 million. Of this amount, Service revenues were $22.2 million, which represents growth of 74% compared to the same quarter of last year. Net loss for the quarter was ($9.1) million, or ($0.11) per share, compared to a net loss of ($7.9) million, or ($0.12) per share, for the three months ended April 30, 2003. Of the 264,000 new subscriptions added in the quarter, approximately 196,000 resulted from TiVo's relationship with DIRECTV, nearly five times the number of DIRECTV subscriptions added in Q1 of last year. New TiVo Service subscriptions additions in the quarter were 68,000, an 84% increase compared to Q1 of last year. DIRECTV with TiVo and Series2 DVRs Momentum Drive Record Q1 Results The explosive growth of DIRECTV with TiVo in Q1 demonstrates the growing strength of what is one of the best experiences in television home entertainment: the DIRECTV DVR with TiVo. The record number of DIRECTV activations in the quarter was driven by increased product availability, the $99 price point, and a variety of promotional programs directed at the DIRECTV subscriber base. "Today, with nearly 900,000 subscribers with TiVo, DIRECTV is aggressively marketing the TiVo service as a key differentiator for subscriber retention and revenue growth," commented Mike Ramsay, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of TiVo. In addition to the current DIRECTV with TiVo product, DIRECTV recently began shipping its new High Definition DVR with TiVo. Demand for TiVo Series2 DVRs at retail was also stronger than expected. "In March, TiVo unveiled a new investment plan focused on accelerating growth of TiVo Service subscriptions in the year, and Q1's record demand for our TiVo Series2 platforms is a direct result of these efforts," continued Mr. Ramsay. "We believe increasing our investment to accelerate growth of these high value customers will result in greater financial returns over the long term, beginning with achieving sustainable profitability by the end of next fiscal year." Management Reiterates Outlook for FY-05; Provides Guidance for the Second Quarter In March, TiVo unveiled a plan to invest up to an additional $50 million in subscription acquisition activities focused on accelerating growth of TiVo subscriptions to improve long-term financial returns. Management continues to expect record growth in the number of new subscriptions this fiscal year, doubling TiVo's subscription base to nearly 3 million and positioning the Company for sustainable profitability by the end of next fiscal year. For the second quarter ending July 31, 2004, management expects 265,000 to 300,000 net subscription additions, ending the period with approximately 1.9 million subscriptions. Management expects 65,000 to 75,000 TiVo Service subscription net additions for the second quarter. In addition, management expects 200,000 to 225,000 DIRECTV subscription net additions. Below is additional detail of management's guidance: Second Quarter Management Guidance (in millions, except subscription numbers) Quarter ending July 31, 2004 Service Revenues $23.0 - $23.7 Technology Revenues $2.0 - $2.1 Service and Technology Revenues $25.0 - $25.8 Rebates, Revenue Share, and Other Payments to Channel $(7.4) - $(7.7) Cost of Service and Technology Revenues $(8.1) - $(8.5) Hardware Gross Profit $(5.8) - $(6.1) Gross Profit $3.1 - $4.1 Operating Loss $(19.0) - $(21.0) TiVo Service Subscription Net Additions 65,000 - 75,000 DIRECTV Subscription Net Additions 200,000 - 225,000 Total Subscriptions Net Additions 265,000 - 300,000 Cumulative Subscriptions Approx. 1.9 million Conference Call and Web Cast TiVo will host a conference call to discuss first quarter financial and operating performance at 2:00 pm PT (5:00 pm ET), today, May 25, 2004. To listen to the discussion, please visit tivo.com and click on the link provided for the webcast conference call or dial (913) 981-5571 and use the password 693214. The webcast will be archived and available through June 1, 2004 at tivo.com or by calling (719) 457-0820 and entering the conference ID number 693214 TIVO INC. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (In thousands, except per share data) Three Months Ended April 30, April 30, 2004 2003 Service revenues $22,159 $12,702 Technology revenues 3,015 3,366 Service and Technology revenues 25,174 16,068 Hardware sales 14,337 14,809 Rebates, rev share & other pmts to channel (4,988) (2,357) Net revenues 34,523 28,520 Cost of service revenues 5,593 4,174 Cost of technology revenues 1,962 3,629 Cost of hardware sales 16,850 14,178 Gross margin 10,118 6,539 Research and development 8,999 5,472 Sales and marketing 5,600 3,999 General and administrative 4,239 3,778 Loss from operations (8,720) (6,710) Interest and other income (expense), net (329) (1,160) Provision for taxes (18) (12) Net loss attributable to common stockholders $(9,067) $(7,882) Net loss per common share - basic and diluted $(0.11) $(0.12) Weighted average common shares used to calculate basic & diluted 79,800 64,021 TIVO INC. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (In thousands) April 30, January 31, 2004 ASSETS Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments $138,360 $143,235 Accounts receivable, net 10,087 12,131 Inventories 5,154 8,566 Prepaid expenses and other 7,660 9,063 Intangible, property and equipment, net 10,423 10,896 Total assets $171,684 $183,891 LIABILITIES & STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY Accounts payable and other liabilities $25,191 $31,967 Deferred revenue 80,679 80,287 Convertible notes payable, long term (Face Value $10,450) 6,430 6,005 Total stockholders' equity 59,384 65,632 Liabilities & stockholders' equity $171,684 $183,891 TIVO INC. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS (In thousands) Three months ended April 30, April 30, 2004 2003 CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES: Net loss attributable to common stockholders $(9,067) $(7,882) Non-cash adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by operating activities: 1,985 3,018 Working capital (314) (2,140) Long-term prepaid assets and liabilities 664 (14) Deferred revenue 392 1,444 Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities (6,340) (5,574) Net cash used in investing activities (750) (407) Net cash provided by financing activities 2,215 1,437 NET CHANGE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS Balance at beginning of period 143,235 44,201 Balance at end of period 138,360 39,657 Net increase (decrease) in cash $(4,875) $(4,544) TIVO INC. OTHER DATA Subscriptions Three Months Ended (Subscriptions in thousands) April 30, April 30, 2004 2003 TiVo Service 68 37 DIRECTV 196 42 Total Subscriptions Net Additions 264 79 TiVo Service 724 433 DIRECTV 872 270 Total Cumulative Subscriptions 1,596 703 % of TiVo Service Subscriptions paying recurring fees 42% 34% Included in the 1,596,000 subscriptions are approximately 18,000 lifetime subscriptions that have reached the end of the 48-month period TiVo uses to recognize lifetime subscription revenue. These lifetime subscriptions no longer generate subscription revenue. SOURCE TiVo Inc.
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Stock charts provided through the good offices of www.clearstation.com. Our research can also be found at WWW.Multex.com and on www.ibes.com on a pay-per-report basis. AXXel's VTAR Newsletter-TIVO Update 5.26.04 |
