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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (50579)5/27/2004 8:18:56 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
Yiwu, <<These US strategists are amazing that they actually called this type of leasing farmland as "China's colonies".>>

I want you to get it very straight that when Chinese entities lease otherwise not used land to farm, benefiting the local tax revenue and employment, setting an example for neighbors on what might be achieved if only one tried, it is colonization.

And when US entities do same, it is either called foreign direct investment, and if done so by force of arms, it is regime changing liberation, to be welcomed by flower-throwing locals, whether they like it or not.

When Japan survives 12 years of recession with hardly a scratch, it is called forever malaise; when the US stares into the abyss of impending debt implosion, it is called wealth creation.

When SEAsia suffers debt implosion, it is due to greed and crony capitalism. When the same happens in the US, it is known as dynamism but with a few bad apples.

When China shoots demonstrators, it is called a massacre, and when the US bombs a wedding party full of children, it is storied a raid against terrorists.

When Japanese and Chinese companies go global, it is an indication of weakness, and when US companies do so, it is called triumph of American values.

Got it?!

China Going Global?
May 27, 2004
stratfor.biz

Summary

Chinese firms are moving holdings out of the domestic market as a hedge against a downturn in the country's shaky economy.

Analysis

China's multinational corporations will be allowed to operate foreign exchange funds overseas, a top official with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said May 27. The announcement was made during a two-day forum organized by the Ministry of Commerce about Chinese firms "going global." Beijing started the policy of "going global" in 2000 to encourage enterprises to invest in other countries and regions.

Stratfor believes the Chinese government is diversifying its overseas holdings as a hedge against economic malaise at home. China's total overseas investment exceeds $30 billion, according to official statistics. In addition to foreign acquisitions, lending abroad by Chinese banks has noticeably increased in the past few years. Chinese banks lent a total of $14.4 billion to foreign institutions, a 50 percent rise from 2002, Basis Point reports.

The behavior is reminiscent of Japan's in the 1980s and early 1990s, when Japanese investors bought anything they could in foreign markets. At the time, Japanese purchases were mistaken for strength, but eventually they were exposed as a bet against the country's economic future. The very same trend is happening in China.

Chinese firms are moving overseas less haphazardly than their Japanese counterparts, buying into complementary markets and technologies. The structural weaknesses of the Chinese economy and system remain. The policy is more about putting money somewhere else and should not be mistaken as a sign of solid growth and globalization.



Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

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