US must act to curb Chávez's excesses
By Joseph Nunez
Published: May 27 2004 21:26 | Last Updated: May 27 2004 21:26
Venezuela is proof that free elections do not guarantee political legitimacy or responsible governance. Hugo Chávez, its president, though democratically elected, does not act in a democratic manner. This is a big problem for the Organisation of American States, the western hemisphere's 34-member diplomatic forum, which has made much of its democratic charter, signed in 2001.
ELMAT: Look that, if a guys doesn't like the government it maust be curbed!!! Where was the US when Bolivian, Paraguayan, Argentinean, Chile and scores of Brazilian dictators were in power during the Cold War? Lets hope Bush gets his butt kicked and this passes.
Mr Chávez has strong support from the poor and the military, now purged of opponents. But he has alienated many others because he operates as an elected dictator. He has fomented class warfare, politicised the country's institutions, ruined the economy, violated human rights and sought to build ties with rogue states, while accusing traditional allies of plotting against him. Now he is defying popular support for a recall referendum - a nationwide vote on his continuation in office - that is allowed for in his own rewritten constitution.
On Wednesday, Roger Noriega, US assistant secretary of state, warned that Mr Chávez's actions could lead to US pressure to have Venezuela suspended from the OAS.
The referendum provision was invoked after the opposition and government agreed in May 2003 to resolve a serious political crisis that shut down the economy and provoked bloody confrontations in the streets. The opposition collected 3.4m signatures - well above the 2.4m required. But Mr Chávez asserts that many of the signatures are fraudulent.
The National Election Council - hardly an independent body - has questioned the validity of more than 1m signatures. This weekend, opposition supporters will attempt to authenticate enough to secure a referendum.
No one knows what Mr Chávez will do next, but, if the past is any guide, it is unlikely to be good for democracy. At present it looks as if he will continue to drag things out and delay a referendum through intimidation and demands for "signature verification".
Something must be done to restore democratic governance in Venezuela, and the OAS, with its democratic charter, is in the best position to handle this. A multilateral move strongly to encourage Mr Chávez to stop interfering with the judicial and legislative branches of government is needed.
People familiar with the OAS are not very hopeful that it can positively influence the future of democracy in Venezuela. It tends to appease those Latin American leaders who wrap themselves in the cloak of sovereignty and non-intervention. In effect, it seems to work on the basis of: "Stay out of my country's problems and I will stay out of your country's problems."
Yet taking no action would further erode the legitimacy of the OAS and its democratic charter. It might also force the Venezuelan people to rise up - again - against Mr Chávez, or even provoke the US to step in.
What seems certain is that change will take place - through internal or external means. If the OAS does stand up to Mr Chávez, it will have several effects. First, it will cause protests in a number of countries that are not great fans of democracy, capitalism and the US - a small price for the OAS to pay. Second, it will strengthen the legitimacy of the OAS as a true guardian of democracy. Third, it will dissuade the Venezuelan people and the US from taking strong action to ensure that democratic principles are respected.
The OAS can pull this off if it tries. To be successful, key countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and the US must come together to support an effective OAS role in Venezuela. Mr Noriega's words this week are a hopeful sign. But ultimately these countries can only come together if César Gaviria, secretary-general of the OAS, is willing to demonstrate some leadership.
It is my sincere hope that Mr Chávez will permit the democratic process to work in Venezuela, a country that is heading for membership of the failed state club. But his recent statements in the press do not bode well. Even if a recall referendum is held, there is no guarantee that a change of regime will occur, particularly since the opposition cannot seem to translate the anti-Chávez majority into support for one candidate or party.
There are no easy answers for Venezuela, but leadership that is willing to build legitimacy by bringing all classes together, to provide opportunity and to respect human rights is the preferred solution. None of this is likely unless the OAS is willing to do the right thing in dealing with Mr Chávez.
Col Joseph Nuñez is a professor in the Department of National Security & Strategy at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own. |
