Posted on Fri, May. 28, 2004
Kerry has slight lead in Penna., poll shows
By Patrick Kerkstra
Inquirer Staff Writer
Support for the war in Iraq is steadily eroding in Pennsylvania, and so has President Bush's lead in a critical state in November's election, a poll released yesterday showed.
The Quinnipiac Poll - which shows Kerry ahead by 44 percent to 41 percent, a statistical dead heat - follows a larger trend in other so-called battleground states where November's election could be decided.
Kerry holds a clear advantage in seven of those states while Bush claims just two, according to a poll released Tuesday by Zogby International that tracked voters in all 16 battleground states.
In Pennsylvania, the President's drop in the polls tracks with a decline in support for the war. For the first time, a majority of those polled said that going to war with Iraq was the "wrong thing" to do, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
Citing the beheading of West Chester businessman Nick Berg and the alleged involvement of Pennsylvanians as guards and supervisors in the Iraqi prison abuse scandal, one pollster said yesterday that the Iraq war was quickly becoming a top consideration for the state's voters.
In March, 52 percent of Pennsylvanians backed the Iraq war, but that number has fallen to 42 percent, Quinnipiac found.
"This is a pattern that is beginning to emerge everywhere, but I've not seen anything as dramatic as it is in Pennsylvania," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University's polling institute. "I think that's because the war is coming home so dramatically there."
Yet, pollsters and analysts noted yesterday that Kerry's 3 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania was within the poll's margin of error and could change quickly. In March and April, the same poll had Kerry trailing by 4 and 6 percentage points, respectively, in a three-way race with Bush and Independent Ralph Nader.
"The race is so volatile right now that it's really hard to know what to make of those numbers," said Stephen K. Medvic, a political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, who likened the race in Pennsylvania to a table tennis match.
A spokesman for the Bush campaign also said he did not put much stock in the poll's findings.
"What you're looking at now is a snapshot in time, and that's all this is," said Kevin A. Madden. "November is when the most important poll is taken."
Marc Nevins, a spokesman for the Kerry campaign in Pennsylvania, also downplayed the poll, saying the fight for Pennsylvania "will stay close through Nov. 2."
Some findings in the poll bode well for Bush. Voters, by a margin of 18 percentage points, believe he "would do a better job on terrorism" than would Kerry.
Yet, Bush's Pennsylvania job approval rating - a closely watched number for incumbents in a presidential election year - is at 41 percent, his lowest ever in the Quinnipiac poll, Richards said. And 50 percent of voters believe Kerry would do a better job on their most important issue: managing the economy. Only 41 percent thought Bush would do better.
"The current battleground figures tell us what we already know, which is that Bush is in real trouble," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
But just as significant, Sabato said, was Kerry's inability to build a bigger lead during a time when the Bush administration is being battered by the press.
"Bush looks awful," said Sabato. "Just everything has gone wrong for him. Everything. And yet Kerry is only even or slightly ahead."
If the President can remain close in the polls in the midst of the prison abuse scandal and other problems in Iraq, he may well be in a strong position if events break in his favor between now and November, Medvic agreed.
"It's not great news for Bush, but it's not devastating," Medvic said of the poll. "I can't imagine him getting worse press than he has. It can only get better for him."
The Quinnipiac poll also surveyed voters on the state's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Arlen Specter and Democratic Rep. Joseph Hoeffel of Montgomery County. Specter leads that contest, 49-37.
The poll surveyed 701 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 3.7 percent. It was conducted May 24-25.
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Contact staff writer Patrick Kerkstra at 610-313-8111 or pkerkstra@phillynews.com. |
