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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

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4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (15450)	5/28/2004 9:44:27 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) of 95638

I was wondering about that too. A similar comment was made on the CMOS CC quarter before last, that the cycle was already quite old. CMOS replied that while the absolute bottom may have been a couple years back, things have just bounced along the bottom since, with order strength returning just last summer, so they date the upturn to then. If you figure this cycle will be muted (the bears' general thesis, due to outsize efficiency gains from new equipment), then you could see a very slight upturn as the cycle beginning and current robust orders as the final frenzy. The companies themselves see a prolonged industry recession just now returning to cyclical growth, which (listen to NVLS call) they see as unusually rational and orderly, so presumably sustainable.

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