If some analysts think the cycle started 31 months ago, no wonder they think the sky is going to fall. I can't follow this reasoning, as we all know that orders didn't start an up cycle until last summer.
There was a false start, which collapsed within 5 months. I can't see how you could call anything that happened during 2001 and 2002 the start of the up cycle. Prolonged bottom, I would agree with but certainly not the start of the up cycle. The stock price cycle started for a few companies back in Oct 2002 but I view this as market anticipation of a rebound...not an actual rebound itself.
The global economy will, for the most part, dictate the length and strength of this up cycle. The way I see it, there are plenty of bears who are waiting for the second shoe to drop and for the stock market to return to the down trends of 2001/2002. While I'm not wildly bullish on our current economic conditions, we are much better prepared for the potential future bumps in the road then we were before 9/11. While the fear factor is still very high, the reality on the ground is that most businesses and industries have implemented "disaster" plans in an attempt to deal with these situations before they occur.
Back to today's situation, we should get plenty of selling as traders back away before the long, holiday weekend. Also, we've had a nice run of about 6 days, so profit taking should not surprise anyone. |
