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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (14678)	5/29/2004 10:22:29 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) of 110194

China will have to change its energy policy. If left to its own devices, an extrapolation of recent trends suggests that China's oil consumption could double over the next decade, from 7 million barrels per day in 2004 to 14 million barrels per day by 2014. The problem with this forecast is that China can't afford the resulting cost of higher oil. precisely why i have always thought all the China Pollyannas like Jim Rogers are full of crap. GDP growth at China's stage of development is highly dependent on increasing per-capita oil consumption. but a meaningful increase in same adds significant pricing pressure, thereby limiting GDP growth. Western countries are in a much better position to absorb the higher oil prices--a sad state of affairs since economic "growth" in the West basically means a further expansion of the housing bubble. The choices are relatively simple: China has to become either much more energy-efficient or find a substitute for oil. But it takes 10 years to build a nuclear power industry. China has to act soon if it wants to adopt the nuclear option. Another alternative is to limit the growth of the automobile industry the sheer, casual arrogance of this US-centric position (and coming from a man of presumed Chinese heritage!) never ceases to astound. the US has less than 5% of world population but consumes 25% of the oil. but China, with some 20% of world population, must be castigated for consuming less than 10% of global oil production. US commentators are always pointing at others as the source of "problems" even though the US is the most piggish nation in world history by a long shot. no wonder everybody hates us.

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