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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (14692)5/29/2004 5:25:14 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
another small scale crackup boom story

a friend of mine from Boston is a semi-retired real estate young tycoon
he loves to squirrel around looking at deals
he wandered to two places

1) Lake Winnepasaukee resort region
a small jet ski rental shop used to do big business
I used to rent for $45 per hour back in 1999 at a nearby spot
this place has had to raise their prices to almost $100/hr
the owner cited gasoline costs, oil mix costs, insurance costs
business has fallen off
he wants to sell the entire business
buddy Ed suspects the business has not just fallen off, but rather has disappeared
the owner only shows sales from early in the spring, but not most recent weeks
he claims he cannot share the info just yet
Ed is not interested in purchasing the failed business

2) Cape Cod small motels
two little coastal resort motels used to do big business
business has fallen off badly
could be discretionary income lost?
could be increases in rental and overnight prices?
costs have increased for heating, electricity, insurance, maintenance
the owners want out
Ed smells a severe decline
he comes from real estate, having made his $M's in it
he suspects resort real estate has begun its hard decline
that niche falls first in a general real estate crunch

not too much depth, sorry
but decent anecdotes
/ jim
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