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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.14

+0.4%

Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (15462)	5/31/2004 10:02:31 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95632

Mike, we have already seen most, if not all, of the short term rally that I was expecting. A couple of positives going forward are that the total put to call ratio remains abnormally high and the BPNDX has given us a strong buy signal. investorshub.com investorshub.com On the negative side this recent rally has taken place on less than optimal volume leading to overbought conditions. The SOX is now very near to strong resistance. The same is true for many of our favorite stocks. investorshub.com Can the market break through this resistance? Never say never. But any rally that is going to stick will need a lot more volume. It will also lead us back to extremely low VIX readings that have consistently brought about at least some selling over the last couple of years. investorshub.com Finally, I cannot say enough about the confirmation I have seen in both local tops and bottoms from Les Horowitz's work when his trend scores reach 100 or -100 respectively. Message 20176881 So in conclusion I would expect that this current rally will fail unless we see enough upward volume to carry the market through some very tough resistance levels: investorshub.com There is still some room to run a little bit higher before that happens. We also have some wiggle room in the volatility indices with a strong buy signal in place from the BPNDX and some very supportive total put to call numbers. JMHO, RtS

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