The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: TraderC who wrote (21141)	6/1/2004 1:35:16 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Well TraderC, I was around in the last real estate bust which was the early 90s (I had no money at the time)- but anyway about a year after the breakdown NAR was still publishing price increases. THEN, 4 years later - 1994 or so they said the market bottomed when in fact the bottom was closer to 92 at least up here. What I mean is that if I as a buyer wanted a house in the early 90s, the best price was available only a year or so after the crash, not 3.5 years later as they claim. The other interesting fact I observed from that period was that the real estate sections of the paper were running headlines like "Sausalito condos on fire"... after the crash. It took a year for reality to set in there too. Of course I realize the RE sections of the paper are primarily advertising and not news. Why NAR statistics are so far behind the curve I don't know. But this is the second time I have observed it. BTW I think RE has peaked and the decline is beginning statewide. Maybe in retrospect April 04 will be known as the peak.

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