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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who wrote (288423)6/2/2004 10:05:06 AM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
cramer is making me some money. he wrote this awesome piece yesterday <g>. I shorted it at the open this am. <vbg>

Amazon's (AMZN:Nasdaq - commentary - research) amazin'! There it goes again, right back up, moving up smartly in a total news vacuum. What can the buyers be thinking now? They don't know how the quarter is. They don't know whether the company's doing well or badly. But they are bidding it up anyway.

To me, this is one of those stories where people are simply extrapolating the pulse of Google. Amazon's enough like Google that it will bask in the latter's rosy glow. Also, lots of people like to do "comp" thinking with Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research), two other stocks that are on a ramp. If they are going up, how can Amazon not go up? That's the logic.

My problem with the logic is the multiple. In the end, Amazon is a retailer, not a breakthrough retailer. Its gross margins are going down, not up, on a year-over-year basis.

Maybe, though, it just doesn't matter. Amazon's in its own world, without any rules or constraints, like gravity's been suspended.

Lucky stock. Lucky shareholders. But Amazon will have to do it without me. I just don't think the rules will stay suspended for long.
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