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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Spekulatius who wrote (21233)6/3/2004 1:32:39 AM
From: Lizzie TudorRead Replies (4) of 306849
 
well if you have a thousand homes total selling in 2000, 1/5 of them selling above 1.2 million, and then 3 years later you have half as many homes selling with a slightly higher median price, I don't see that as a win.

I can't believe people are trying to argue about bay area homes actually RISING in price since 2000. I mean you can't be serious! You had your average joe in 2000 worth 10 million dollars just because he worked at yahoo for 3 years. There was no offshoring then, every company hired thousands and everybody was rich. 3 years later it is all gone with the highest unemployment in the nation and selling a 1.2 million dollar house is all but impossible and people here are saying RE has gone up? We had people standing in line to buy anything under 2mm 3 years ago.

Today we have 2 hot companies coming out, salesforce.com is IPOing soon and they have ONE US opening. Google has a few hundred, whoopie. The wealth here required to buy houses over 1.2mm is gone.

One thing about the RE industry is that it allows delusions and there are so many useless statistics that people convince themselves of the fallacy. Its kindof like those statistics that say average salaries for programmers are higher now than in 2000. The white house puts out stuff like that. If we had a stock market of bay area homes, where every house had a price at any time, we would be about 1/3 of peak overall- just like the stock market. With no impending gains for years.
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