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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.92

+0.1%

Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (15550)	6/3/2004 10:03:25 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95503

There are huge differences between today's market and the summer 1998 both fundamentally and technically. We both can agree that there seems to be a disconnect between fundamentals and what the market is doing. But the market has predictive value even if it does not always predict correctly. The market is now predicting a slow down in the economy. That seems reasonable to me. The bottom that came in 1998 took more than a full year to happen after the top in 1997. The bottoms that took place in 1998 and 2002 had a few things in common that I have taken the time to show on some charts here: investorshub.com We may have a lot further to fall to the next long term bottom. Semiconductor Cycle Tops and Bottoms cannot be discerned by fundamentals or analysts expectations for future earnings. Can they be determined by technical and indicator analysis alone? It sure has as good a chance as following fundamental analysis alone. Basically what we look for is a high spike in the volatility indices along with a buy signal on the BP Indices when they are all below 30 but improving for bottoms and the reverse in the formation of tops. RtS

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