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Gold/Mining/Energy : Pan East Petroleum PEC-TSE Several Projects Starting

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To: HAZ who wrote (21)8/21/1997 1:01:00 PM
From: D.E. Shetland   of 73
 
HAZ , you're quite correct. Any juniour exploration stock must be looked at with a long term perspective becuase it is the combination of probabilities & skill over time that could make one 5-10 time their money. Just look at the Berkely's, Remington's etc... of the world. THere is a hump these companies must get over at which point there are enough prospects and diversity to the production and exploration that these things take-on a lower "risk" discount rate plus higher cash flows and reserves and then they motor on up. It might take a few years after the initial success.

That's what we have here. A company that discovered a fertile are first and is now taking that and expanding into all sort's of different plays and new areas. There will be hits and misses guaranteed and we don't know when they'll happen. So you've got to be able to take the up's and downs. Right now I figure there's enough going on at PEC and the cash flow is such that the downside is $.75-$1.00 on the current price and the upside is $2-3 --this is on normal sorts of assumptions of hit's and misses. If they get lucky somewhere the upside would obviously be greater. But one has to hang in there in these times.

As for the report. It's looking like Strachan is an area where they've hustled to get nice little properties and there interpretations have been bang-on. A hit rate of 80% is pretty darn good. They seem to have many more targets in the area so this could end up being a real nice area to crank up a lot of smaller wells.

The Berland well was a disappointment, although there's still plenty of targets left. However, the Tony Creek was a real surprise. It's looking like a good oil well too. RAM seems to be a tough on and who knows --likewise Bullmoose. The Bullmoose well's are very risky, but they have 3-4 more to farm into.

All in all, it was a neutral report for me. More success than failure, but just by a bit. They gave us some useful info on where they're heading next in some areas. They look like low-risk follow-up wells, so we should have a few more hits this quarter.

I just hope people don't go bailing if Bullmoose is not much. It's not the end all and be all, but people seem to be pointing toward that one. Watch & wait.
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