Though shaken by blow, Chávez won't play dead
Some analysts said Hugo Chávez has been significantly weakened, but others pointed out that he has a long reputation as a tough fighter.
BY RICHARD BRAND
Miami Herald
CARACAS - Venezuela's opposition appears to have succeeded in forcing a recall referendum against President Hugo Chávez, but the celebrations are premature, many analysts say.
The left-leaning president is known to be a tough fighter and political operative and few believe he will leave power quietly.
VOWS VICTORY
True to form, in a national address Thursday night, Chávez vowed to defeat the opposition.
''I've seen sectors of the opposition claiming victory, saying that I am defeated,'' Chávez said. ``Let me tell them something: I haven't started playing. The game starts now.''
Indeed, Chávez is thought to hold sway over Venezuela's key levers of power, such as the National Electoral Council, the Supreme Court and Congress.
WEAKENED
But some analysts here said the apparently successful petition drive has significantly weakened Chávez. They said the council's announcement shows that Chávez can no longer count on his lieutenants to support him. It would also mark the first time Chávez has been defeated in a national electoral process.
''These people are thinking of themselves before they think of Mr. Chávez, and that is a good thing,'' said Tulio Alvarez, a constitutional lawyer in the opposition.
The National Electoral Council's announcement will likely thrust Venezuela into a political campaign that could inflame what are already bitter divisions in the world's fifth-ranking oil producing country.
A referendum is likely to be held in early August.
Chávez may have an incentive to cause delays. If a referendum is held before Aug. 19 and Chávez loses, new elections will be called. But if Chávez loses a referendum after that date, his appointed vice president would finish out the remainder of his term.
It is also unclear whether the wide-ranging opposition will be able to rally around a consensus candidate should the referendum be successful and elections are called. Most analysts say a successful candidate would have to co-opt much of Chávez's leftist rhetoric to appeal to Venezuela's poor majority.
DIFFICULT CHOICE
''The opposition is united right now, but selecting a candidate is going to be a very difficult issue,'' said Simón Alberto Consalvi, a former foreign minister. ``Whoever is chosen has to be with the moderate left. Chávez has created a politics of inclusion with respect to the excluded, so only somebody who has that kind of character can have electoral success.''
Whichever side comes out on top will have to govern a nation of 24 million people wracked by decades of mismanagement and corruption and plagued by a startlingly unequal division of wealth.
''The bottom line for me is that nobody should expect that whatever is announced is going to resolve this conflict,'' said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. ``Given the depth of Venezuela's problems and the rage on both sides, resolution will be a very long-term process.''
WIGGLE ROOM
During his speech, Chávez repeatedly said he would accept the National Electoral Council's decision, though only when it becomes official, suggesting to some analysts that Chávez may yet find some wiggle room to challenge the final tally.
''One way or another, I will be very surprised if there is a referendum,'' said Mark Falcoff, an analyst at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute. ``I don't know what gimmicks Chávez has up his sleeve.''
© 2004 Herald.com and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
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