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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (189295)6/4/2004 8:02:22 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 1575719
 
The Palestinians can win and they don't have to push the Israelis to the brink as you suggest. It will take a lot less for the Israelis to capitulate than the Palestinians.

So they can win, but they can't push the Israelis to the brink. IMO that combination makes no sense.

From what I remember, you describe the Israeli brink as being pushed out of the ME. It will take much less than that.

It wouldn't take that. Just being in even a slight danger of that would qualify. Lesser things might also qualify depending on the situation and how resolute (and how scared) the Israelis are. Something like a severe military defeat, or terrorism sustained at a level more then 10x the current level might qualify, or might not.

Part of the reason why Sharon has stymied the peace talks is because of the demands of the settlers. They don't want to leave the occupied territories. Eventually, the majority of Israelis will realize that the settlements are not worth all the fighting and aggravation. That's why Sharon is trying to pull out of Gaza.........to appease the non Likud Israelis.

And even when Sharon backs moving out of Gaza its not easy.

I think we are talking about different things when we talk about the Palestinians winning. By that term I meant them defeating Israel, not a win/win settlement that gives both sides a decent deal, but something that would basically be a capitulation by Israel, or a military defeat of Israel. Israel accepting the 1947 borders might qualify. They won't accept that unless they are truly forced to and I don't think the Palestinians can do the forcing.

Being "pushed to the brink" would happen long before either any of those things, but I don't think such a Palestinian win, or even Israel being pushed to the brink is likely, at least not without massive and open help from outside forces, and even then I don't see it happening in the foreseeable future.

Tim
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