Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 232.06

+3.6%

1:13 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10137)	6/4/2004 9:19:31 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Cary, I go by how long bookings have risen from a bottom in the past. The bookings increase that started Oct '96 lasted 13 months. The one started Oct '98 lasted about 2 years. Investors try to take profits a few months before the bookings top. So far we've had rising bookings since August 2003 - 9 months. Most of the 9 months have been wasted because stocks haven't gone up. AMAT is near it's price of August 2003. The bookings rise from August 2003 was steep. I do not expect it to rise at that rate many more months. There may not be a rapid downturn in bookings this time - but I cannot estimate that. Many CEOs were over-optimistic in summer of 2000. I certainly don't trust analysts either, especially since those at SB are brand new finance.messages.yahoo.com To say that the market will see the light and recognize the value of equipment stocks eventually strikes me as complacency. The market will not start buying AMAT shortly before the bookings top - and that top could be just months away. Time's awasting. Gottfried for reference a chart of AMAT price with SEMI bookings and a table below home.comcast.net Month Billings Bookings Book-to-Bill 1995 JAN95 677 892 1.32 FEB95 705 995 1.41 MAR 861 1119 1.30 APR 961 1180 1.23 MAY 1025 1140 1.11 JUN 1014 1192 1.18 JUL 1044 1124 1.08 AUG 1054 1102 1.05 SEP 1113 1132 1.02 OCT 1135 1209 1.07 NOV 1223 1295 1.06 DEC 1305 1499 1.15 1996 JAN96 1257 1607 1.28 FEB96 1243 1687 1.36 MAR 1256 1447 1.15 APR 1354 1361 1.01 MAY 1366 1187 0.87 JUN 1354 1175 0.87 JUL 1311 992 0.76 AUG 1248 882 0.71 SEP 1119 778 0.70 OCT 1072 833 0.78 NOV 1062 952 0.90 DEC 1069 1078 1.01 1997 JAN97 1034 1116 1.08 FEB97 1029 1101 1.07 MAR 1102 1265 1.15 APR 1261 1386 1.10 MAY 1299 1421 1.09 JUN 1375 1474 1.07 JUL 1476 1659 1.12 AUG 1536 1688 1.10 SEP 1672 1774 1.06 OCT 1793 1835 1.02 NOV 1598 1599 1.00 DEC 1559 1550 0.99 1998 JAN98 1458 1363 0.93 FEB 1369 1233 0.90 MAR 1370 1123 0.82 APR 1416 1102 0.78 MAY 1361 1107 0.81 JUNE 1266 933 0.74 JULY 1112 718 0.65 AUG 1012 572 0.57 SEP 846 481 0.57 OCT 852 638 0.75 NOV 932 767 0.84 DEC 921 883 0.97 1999 JAN99 890 997 1.12 FEB 845 1029 1.22 March 944 1257 1.33 April 1099 1405 1.28 May 1217 1514 1.24 June 1288 1561 1.21 JULY 1375 1531 1.11 AUG 1441 1565 1.09 SEP 1413 1511 1.07 OCT 1484 1610 1.08 NOV 1529 1695 1.11 DEC 1598 1908 1.19 2000 Jan00 1604 2227 1.39 FEB 1594 2302 1.44 March 1745 2547 1.46 April 1991 2716 1.36 May 2158 2778 1.29 June 2260 2859 1.27 JULY 2373 2902 1.22 AUG 2431 2984 1.23 SEP 2476 2888 1.17 OCT 2574 2993 1.16 NOV 2422 2707 1.12 DEC 2389 2372 0.99 2001 Jan01 2308 1854 0.80 Feb 2279 1611 0.71 March 2020 1197 0.59 April 1655 721 0.44 May 1462 723 0.49 June 1360 731 0.54 July 1192 769 0.65 August 1144 715 0.62 Sept 961 614 0.64 Oct 896 644 0.72 Nov 817 589 0.72 Dec 810 614 0.76 2002 Jan02 806 655 0.81 Feb 818 737 0.9 March 798 836 1.05 April 815 996 1.22 May 870 1105 1.27 June 927 1171 1.26 July 969 1182 1.22 August 995 1017 1.02 Sept 1045 832 0.8 Oct 1000 775 0.78 Nov 976 777 0.8 Dec 878 827 0.94 2003 Jan03 784 739 0.94 Feb 778 761 0.98 March 857 777 0.91 April 840 757 0.9 May 805 724 0.9 June 777 722 0.93 July 786 707 0.9 August 792 732 0.92 Sept 811 779 0.96 Oct 867 871 1.01 Nov 876 923 1.05 Dec 963 1181 1.23 2004 Jan04 1034 1226 1.19 Feb 1144 1316 1.15 Mar 1268 1379 1.09 Apr 1401 1594 1.14

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