Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: Gottfried who wrote (10139)	6/4/2004 10:44:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 25522

Gottfried, Your chart shows a 1 month trough for both 1996 and 1998. I can argue that we have seen a 32 month trough starting in 2001 with a false blip up in 2002. That argument says that we have had 5 months of what might be called the up cycle. We can argue about 5 months or 9 months, but there is no doubt that the shape and duration of the trough was dramatically different this time. While it is not obvious what conclusion may be drawn from the different trough, it certainly calls into question your use of the duration of the 1996 and 1998 up cycles as a key reference in your analysis. I expect the bookings top to occur in 2007, if at all. I believe the greatest risk to my forecast is in the potential success of anti-American terrorists.

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