Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10140)	6/5/2004 12:16:51 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 25522

Cary, I don't know what to think, but understand your argument. We have had 9 months of rising bookings, yet investors have not driven AMAT any higher. I think the constant harping by many analysts that the cycle is almost over and that equipment stocks should be valued differently than before had something to do with that. I cannot see how the same investors who missed those 9 months will now invest. If they fear the bookings top so much, then they know we're even closer to it now. They even have proof now that NOT buying AMAT in the last 9 months was the right thing to do: AMAT didn't go anywhere. I hope I'm wrong and you are right. I think analysts like Fitzgerald have acted as spoilers and I would not be surprised to see the first profitless - for investors - up cycle. Do you expect bookings to change the steepness of the upward slope or do you expect bookings to flatten? Gottfried PS: a poster from iHub [http://www.investorshub.com/boards/profile.asp?user=12408] has charted SIA ww chip sales predictions and sent me the following linked chart. He gave permission to post his chart. You can see that SIA estimates for far out years are always wildly optimistic. He writes >as you know the WSTS / SIA has come out with their new market estimates. I have been plotting these half yearly estimates for the world market since November 1997. For your information (and maybe for your website) please receive the updated graph attached. Gives you a sense just how much even the professionals in the market can be wrong over time, which in turn is the reason for the highly cyclical nature of that business.< link to Culmus' SIAestimates chart home.comcast.net

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