Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 223.95

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (10142)	6/5/2004 12:31:44 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 25522

Gottfried, Bookings forecasts are flattening in Q2 2004 after very strong increases in Q4 2003 and Q1 2004. I expect bookings growth to shadow semi revenue growth, but I have not established the relationship quantitatively. That is why I am watching the wafer starts data. I think you focused too much on bookings and price. You need to consider PE and price, both current PE and estimated peak PE. I think things will change in the next few quarters because revenue levels are high enough to generate high margins and high EPS. I think the higher EPS and the discrediting of the end of cycle fears will push prices higher. How high will depend on EPS growth and new predictions of a longer cycle. Cary

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