SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 235.65+2.0%11:45 AM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Gottfried who wrote (10144)6/5/2004 11:50:33 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
Gottfried,

You say you "almost ignore PE" and that might have worked in the past, but semi equip sales and orders have been very different this time and, as you point out, analysts have been depressing prices by contending that the up cycle end is imminent.

I am primarily interested in 2 relationships:

1. Semi revenue and actual wafer starts; and

2. Equipment revenue and fab capacity expressed as potential wafer starts.

I don't think current behavior is cyclical and I don't think a typical historical top, one that is followed by a precipitous move down, is going to occur any time soon. I believe unit demand for semis will continue to rise at strong rates. Revenue will depend on unit demand and ASPs. ASPs will be strongly negatively affected if capacity begins to significantly outstrip demand. I don't think that is a given, but we won't need to guess if we monitor the 2 relationships I listed.

Cary
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News