My investment approach is simple: all it requires is a crystal ball <bg>. I have found, after almost 50 years of experience, that when I time the market, I am right about half the time--e.g., my recent purchase of calls. I have also found that it is exactly the gamblers fallacy to expect future events to be influenced by past events. TA,IMO, has not helped because the market is teleological-- future events rather than past patterns influence value--IN THE LONG RUN.
Therefore, I see the increased use of chips as being the single biggest determinant of value for the semi manufacturers. Next is the competition to lower costs, which drives capital investment. And, of course, there is the critical issue of level of management.
On all of these things, IMO, the odds are in favor of AMAT. Competition from other equipment companies is critical. The biggest fear is the unknown. E.g., will OLEDs replace flat-panel? Will biological chips become viable? Will a new "killer technology" replace chips?
In the short run, geopolitical events are unpredictable, but highly influential. The current mess has put a temporary lid on stock prices. I tend to buy when the shit hits the fan, because these are usually short-term influences. However, I am becoming more risk-aversive with age.
fred |
