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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 223.95+1.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (10195)6/6/2004 7:23:47 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
Gottfried, << what institutions do is key. It is not at all clear to me that they are interested in AMAT now, in spite of the relatively low valuation and good forward prospects of the company.>>

I agree with your assessment. It is pretty easy to see the "red spikes of volume" sticking up above any "green volume" days since early November. The first big down day was 11/13 when over 70M shares traded hands and AMAT finished down 0.70. The next day, 11/14, volume shrank, but still a hefty 46+M shares and AMAT was down 1.25. In those 2 days, the price went from 25.44 to 23.48. The first clue of distribution by the "big boys". The cycle "peak" was at hand and "they" were starting to unload.

<<That requires a drastic change in their thinking and the tacit admission they made a mistake.>>

That's true, but these guys are good - they can change on a "dime" without missing a beat. Really, all they have to do is wake up one morning and announce to the world - that guess what? - based on some fact(yet to be determined) that the outlook has changed and now it is "time to buy". In the meantime, they have lots of low priced shares they have accumulated the last 6 months to sell to you. Any admission of a mistake is the last thing on their mind.:)

Don
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