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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: que seria who wrote (50797)	6/7/2004 9:24:06 PM
From: rolatzi	Read Replies (1) of 74559

The analysis of Stratfor thus places the environmentalists in league with Al Quaida. If there is merely a persistent premium placed on the price of oil over the next few years, due to fear of disruption of oil wells in SA, it will finally cause and stimulate the development of alternative energy sources in the west. Saudi Arabia has been trying to stave off that possibility since the 70's. Each time the price of oil rises, SA has acted as the swing producer to lower the cost for consumers. In this way, SA has impeded the western nations and energy companies from investing in other energy sources. I have no doubt that over a ten year period that the transition can be made if there is the will to do it. Saudi Arabia must be resolute against the subversion of Al Quaida if they want to prevent these events from transpiring. They must both prevent a disruption in oil shipments and have a domestic environment that allows the foreign engineers and equipment to come in and shore up their oil production. If they remain in control but are unable to convince the world that they can produce in excess or even prevent disruption, then oil prices remain high and they and OPEC lose their control over the energy markets. Assuming the truth of such analysis it is further in the interest of Al Quaida that Kerry not get elected as he is more likely to have the flexibility and see the self interest in moving away from middle eastern oil and toward alternative energy (not withstanding his NIMBY decision regarding Nantucket Sound wind power). Only the democrats can bring about a resurrection of nuclear energy. The republicans would be crucified by the democrats on the stack of a nuclear power plant if they tried. This would be a policy in contradistinction to that of Bush, his middle east gambit in Iraq and his reliance on hydrocarbon fuels. The large energy companies are investing in wind and solar power development, are not spending their wealth on exploration of new sources of hydrocarbons and will be ready to move to the next phase of energy consumption. Ro

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