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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 225.61-1.3%3:56 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (10300)6/9/2004 7:38:42 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
RE: "I agree with this approach."

I am not sure I do. That is, I am not sure, going forward, that globalization will increase the US economic pie. It has up to now, but the dynamics of global competition are changing. First, our trade balance indicates we are consuming more than we produce (in $ value). Trends seem to indicate that many of our most productive jobs are moving overseas. These jobs are being replaced with less productive, lower wage jobs. For some period of time, consumption can be maintained despite the jobs situation, but, inevitably, less job opportunity means less productivity which in turn means lower output and GDP.

It is a difficult problem to determine if a US economy in isolation, where US workers produce what they consume, would be better for the welfare of US citizens. Obviously, there would be more incentive to apply capital to improve worker productivity than there is now when many industries pay very low wages.
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