Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (7802)	6/11/2004 10:25:54 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) of 116555

Watch the MBAA purchase index, mbaa.org it goes under 400 and stays a few months we get the slowdown and the end of the parabolic price move. Goes to 350-375, prices start fading, below 350 will start the fast break housing rout. 3-5: 429 30 year rate: 5.49% 3-12 452 5.34% 3-19: 449 5.40% 3-26: 444 5.49% 4-2: 478 (first top?) 5.75% 4-9: 432 5.77% 4-16 434 5.84% (the arrival of ARMS: 31.7% of total) one year rate: 3.58% 4-23 463 6.01% ARMs: 32.7% of rate: 3.67% 4-30 483 6.10% ARMs: 32.1% rate: 3.69% 5-7 494 (double top?) 6.32% ARMs: 34.8% rate: 3.74% 5-14 454 6.21% ARMs: 35.2% rate: 3.75% 5-21: 450 6.26% ARMs: 34.6% rate: 3.86% 5-28: 460 6.24% ARMs: 33.9% rate: 3.85% 6-4: 432 6.25% ARMs: 32.6% rate: 3.94% 6-11: (comes out next Wed, was big spike in short rates this week, 19 bps in both 6 mo T-bill, and 2 year UST bondtalk.com look for ARMs fade, and lower purchase index?

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