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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks
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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (4854)8/21/1997 4:52:00 PM
From: Haolin Ni   of 9285
 
Hi, Roger, It is very interesting you start to short Plsia. I think you should have a look at AVIR. This company has no future although its flu vaccine has good clinical trail results. Its charter has a head and should formed now.

The cold adapted live flu vaccine has no good future because the flu virus is keep changing and no one can guarantee to repeatly produce safe live attenuated vaccine with same method. The killed virus vaccine is much safe and provide good immunity and protection for the population. Only killed flu virus vaccine can be used for the big population when epidemic of flu occurs. The only advatage of the flu vaccine developed by AVIR is nosal delivery. However, several company are developing this sort of the flu vaccine. A UK company is developing the oral delivery killed flu virus vaccine and has a patent approved in the US. Its vaccine has good results in phase I and Phase II trial.

The market of the flu vaccine in the US is limited. The AVIR has no patent protection over the technique used for generation of attenuated vaccine. I predict that the AVIR will reach the low teens in several month, may even go under the ten some time.

Please go to AVIR thread to analysis the posts there and make your conclusion.

Good luck!
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