SIA forecast could stall equipment market, says research firm
By Peter Clarke
Silicon Strategies
06/11/2004, 11:05 AM ET
NEW TRIPOLI, Pennsylvania -- A Semiconductor Industry Association forecast that revised semiconductor growth from 19 percent and 6 percent growth in 2004 and 2005 respectively, to 29 percent and 4 percent, is set to depress semiconductor equipment sales in 2004, according to market research company The Information Network.
Looking further out it the report and its prediction of demand could stall the semiconductor equipment recovery before it has really got started, the market researcher said.
The SIA published its revised predictions for the market on Wednesday.
"Negative sentiment from analysts and forecasts of a relatively flat 2005 from the SIA are pointing to eventual pushouts and cancellations of equipment," said Robert Castellano, president of The Information Network, in a statement issued Friday (June 11). "Semiconductor manufacturers are already overly cautious from the last severe downturn, and fear, uncertainty, and doubt -- FUD factor -- about growth beyond late 2004 will affect their decisions to go ahead and purchase more tools they may not need by the time they are delivered."
The chip manufacturing equipment upswing has been running for nine months while semiconductor unit sales have been in an "up cycle" for 28 months, since January 2002. This 17-month lag between turn-arounds is in contrast to historical patterns, where semiconductor and equipment inflections typically occurred within three months of each other, Castellano said.
Castellano said that there has been a change in chip demand monitoring and equipment buying during the last slump. If real or perceived demand drops the equipment market boom of the last six months would stall, he said. The Information Network maintained its own prediction that the market for front-end equipment is set to grow 21.0 percent in 2004 and 11.4 percent in 2005 before dropping 7.9 percent in 2006. However, it said that it was investigating whether to revise the numbers downwards in light of the SIA's forecast. |
