Nader Attracts Anti-War Voters As Kerry Vows Not To Exit Iraq
[The subject of Kerry's commitment to stay the course in Iraq has recently come up here. I see a political problem for Kerry here since a big part of the Dem base is rigidly antiwar. Kerry is in a no-win situation. If he stays firm on Iraq, he loses votes to Nader. If he turns antiwar, he'll be seen as even more of a flip-flopper than now and will lose everyone who isn't antiwar. ]
BY SEAN HIGGINS
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Californian Martha Marsch supported anti-war candidate Dennis Kucinich in the Democratic primaries. She says she won't vote for the certain nominee, Sen. John Kerry, because of Iraq.
Her dream ticket?
"President Kucinich and VP Nader," she said. "Kerry, a 'Bush lite' president, will not save this country."
Kucinich won't be on the ballot this year. But consumer advocate turned independent candidate Ralph Nader will be. And that will sorely tempt some liberal voters just like it did in 2000.
This time he has an issue he didn't have in 2000: Iraq. Nader has called for a complete pullout of allied forces. Fans and critics alike say it is giving his bid a boost, maybe even enough to tip the election to Bush.
"The way to save U.S. and Iraqi lives and reverse the escalating spiral of violence is for the U.S. to go back home," the consumer advocate has said.
No Kerry Pullout
That's in stark contrast to Kerry who — while often critical of the war — has rejected a quick pullout. He has even said he may increase troop levels.
"We must create a stable and secure environment in Iraq," Kerry said earlier this year. "That will require a level of forces equal to the demands of the mission."
That stance is similar to the one held by President Bush, who has said the U.S. must stay the course. Democratic strategists worry that anything less may make Kerry look weak on national security.
Liberal activists worry Kerry's hawkish stance gives anti-war voters nowhere to go but to Nader. That could set up a replay of 2000 when Nader siphoned off liberal votes, tipping Florida to Bush.
A June 1-6 IBD/TIPP poll put Bush ahead of Kerry 45%-44% in a two-way race. In a three-way race, Bush leads Kerry 43%-41% and Nader gets 7%. In early April, Kerry beat Bush 45%-43%, with Nader getting just 5%. (Most other polls now show Kerry ahead.)
Iraq Key Voter Issue
Nader's rise coincides with concern over the war. Iraq is now rated a top issue by 43%, up from 29% in May. A Gallup poll found 27% want all troops back home.
Only 65% of Democrats report being satisfied with their candidate vs. 82% for Republicans.
Among independents, Bush leads Kerry 36%-32%. In the April poll Kerry had a four-point edge among independents. Nader gets 13% of independents, 6% of Democrats and 2% of Republicans.
Robert Borosage, co-director of the Campaign for America's Future, a labor-backed group, thinks liberal anger toward Bush will overcome any qualms about Kerry. But he concedes Iraq is likely costing Kerry votes.
"There is obviously a good portion of the movement that was against the war, that thinks we ought to get out of Iraq and would like Kerry to be bolder on that," Borosage said.
Nader's campaign agrees, saying Kerry "completely ignored" anti-war voters. It will continue to press the issue, staffers say.
"When Nader gets to 14% (in the polls) people will be really shocked," said spokesman Kevin Zeese. "Nader is the only serious candidate with a plan for withdrawal from Iraq."
Reaching Out
Nader is trying to broaden his support too. He gave an interview to Pat Buchanan's American Conservative magazine in which he reached out to anti-war conservatives disappointed by Bush.
Earlier this year, Nader seemed to have little traction. Most liberals rallied to the Democrats and urged Nader not to run again. Some activists even set up groups to campaign against him.
Nader also suffered fund-raising and ballot access problems. He was reportedly estranged from the Green Party, running as an independent instead. But liberal opposition seems to have ebbed.
TheNaderFactor.com, set up to oppose his bid, now is overrun with pro-Nader postings.
"The Democratic Party doesn't really represent progressives at all," wrote someone called SeattleforNader in a Web site posting.
Zeese says the Nader campaign has raised about $1 million, enough to qualify for federal matching grants.
Nader's ballot access troubles may be overstated too. He won the endorsement of Ross Perot's Reform Party and may still win the Green Party's nod. He's also talking with other third parties. Nader may run as the candidate of different parties in different states.
He vows he'll be on more state ballots in '04 than 2000's 43.
"That's optimistic" but possible, said Bud Jackson, spokesman for StopNader.com, which is mounting legal challenges to Nader's ballot access. Many states have easy access, Jackson says.
Opposition from former allies seems to have only emboldened Nader, who vows not to drop out.
He devoted a recent National Press Club speech to the need for third parties. He even offered a free-market rationale. "If the marketplace blocks entrepreneurs, it can't renew itself," he said.
The Kerry campaign did not return a request for comment.
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