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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated
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To: Apollo who wrote (936)6/13/2004 9:46:39 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (5) of 2955
 
Apollo,

I'm uncharacteristically behind in my reading by a few days. I wonder if it is more than coincidental that I'm having to adjust to having a day job that has conveniently become a day, evening and night job all rolled into one. :)

In response to your post I've got a reaction to a June 9 press release: "From the BREW Developers Conference in San Diego, Verizon Wireless, the nation's leading wireless provider, announced today that total downloads on its Get It Now service have reached more than 70 million since its national launch in September 2002, up from a total of 8.5 million at last year's Conference."

I have always been amazed at the rapid adoption rate of BREW and this information along with all the news about BREW adoption makes me absolutely giddy. BREW downloads doubled in a recent six-month period. But we still don't have confirmation that Qualcomm is taking its share of BREW revenue rather than giving it away to promote the business.

The company is now generating more than $1.5 billion in annual free cash flow net of options-related tax benefits. The most recent quarter's production of FCF per share bettered its previous best quarter by nearly 40%. For every dollar in revenue that quarter, more than half of it became FCF. Amazing.

Though the continued increase in FCF per share following last year's 56% increase is terrific news, the enterprise value is now equal to 32 years of trailing FCF. It's very difficult to value a stock when the company is growing FCF so rapidly. Buyer beware for not being in the stock and buyer beware for being in it.

--Mike Buckley
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