Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry Message Board

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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (30644)	6/13/2004 10:03:21 PM
From: Orcastraiter	Read Replies (1) of 81568

how can a youth or black vote show up in the polls, which only project "likely voters"? This is a serious question. Most scientific polls start with the group of "Registered Voters". I guess this is what you mean by likely voters. I don't know how much you know about random sampling and probabilities but save to say, if the sampling is truly random then some black and youth vote is represented in the sample. Therefore their voting clout is represented. I'm not aware of any polls that further focus on young voters and their trends, but there might be someone looking specifically at that voter segment. Have you checked on Google for specific data? Regardless of any micro trends in the data, the overall data indicates a very close race. What will determine the final outcome of the election has very likely not occurred as of yet. We saw how bad polls missed the Arnold landslide in CA. The anger in the youth vote then was coming from the same place that the anger comes from to get rid of Bush (at least partially anyway). So are you saying that the youth were angry at Davis? Then voted for Arnold? From what I remember of the polling in that election, the polls said that Arnold would win the race. The margin of victory was very changeable...as every week the front runners changed with candidates bowing out and in. In a field of over 250 candidates the sampling sizes needed to be increased to accurately reflect the trends, but that was not done, because it would have increased the cost of the polling. And don't forget about the compressed time frame of the CA Gov election. Hardly any time to see a trend developing one way or the other. That election needs to be take with a grain of salt. It's not often that you have a pornographer and a porno queen vying with a body builder for the governorship. Orca

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