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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (15696)	6/14/2004 11:18:23 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 95566

I think you need to look at the size of the market place for semis today compared to 1998. The range of applications is ever increasing. From a pure valuation perspective, I would think that you would need to add roughly 50% to the 1998 SOX low to reach a comparable low today and, basically, we saw that low reached in 2002 and 2003. I would suspect we see another low in 2006 or 2007 to rival these previous 2 drops but the market may have other plans. Of course, if China attacks Taiwan or some other global scale mega-event occurs, who knows how low valuations could drop but I think the "current" risk of this type of event is low. Right now, everyone is looking at the cloud formations on the horizon and they have all determined there's going to be a major storm approaching. For the most part, I'm waiting to see if the forecasts come true. Do I see some rain, yes. Do I see it raining for 40 days and 40 nights? Get real.

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