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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry
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To: Orcastraiter who wrote (30699)6/14/2004 1:33:46 PM
From: Lizzie TudorRead Replies (1) of 81568
 
I don't know how much you know about random sampling and probabilities but save to say, if the sampling is truly random then some black and youth vote is represented in the sample. Therefore their voting clout is represented.

I am certainly not an expert on polling. But the problem with random sampling is this- anger (or in more general terms, any extreme emotion) has a tendency to skew the sample. Pretty much every highly charged emotional vote is called incorrectly by the pollsters. Recently these include the CA recall and the 98 congressional elections in the middle of impeachment (repubicans were forecast to win big and they lost big). Its always that way. Polling with random sampling is like stock market technical predictions, they work within a range but cannot forecast a change in trend. JMO.
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