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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (15729)	6/15/2004 12:35:05 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (4) of 95562

Kirk, I wrote about the total put to call ratio in my first post to Michael yesterday. It is one of the measures of sentiment I follow. I thought you knew that? You would if you had been reading my posts. Anyway, I look at the CPC every single day the market is open. I alluded to the abnormally high numbers yesterday: Message 20219723 investorshub.com zealllc.com What I was trying to get across to Michael was that there is almost no similarities in the sentiment indicators now to the market lows set in 1998 which he was writing about in his post. Objectively Measurable Sentiment has almost nothing to do with analysts and the financial press. The CPC is objective but has limited value imho. The Volatility Indices are objective and much more important. The Newsletter Writers Survey is objective and a terrific contrary indicator. In 1998 the VXO hit 60. It is 15 today! 15!!! That is not a market bottom number. This is not 1998. The Newsletter Writer's Survey had more bears than bulls at the bottom in 1998 too. There are far more bulls today. The market may well rally from here due to improving fundamentals and a supportive high put to call ratio but will it hit new highs? I doubt it. Will institutional investors step in and buy and hold shares again this cycle? I doubt it. But most importantly is this really anything like 1998 when measured objectively on a sentiment basis? NOPE... not yet anyway. Get back to me on that when the VIX/VXO are over 40 and the Newsletter Writers poll has more bears than bulls. investorshub.com vtoreport.com RtS

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