Hold on there Louis, the 'whole street' did not get bagged. Below is a post made three weeks ago. Not right on the money, they did miss the quarter, but pretty close I'd have to say.
It just continues to amaze me that people buy the hype and don't spend a few minutes thinking about whether it's at all realistic. There's no Systemwizard contracts, why should there be a strong quarter?
For those burned here, don't worry, the hype-cycle will start again. It always does with this stock. But I have to believe Volpe and Oppenheimer are beginning to lose a bit of their unbridled enthusiasm...
Mark K.
_________________________________________________
To: gordon rundle (2130 )
From: Mark K. Aug 1 1997 9:48AM EST
Reply #2132 of 2236
Estimates.
I can't believe I'm going to wade in here, but here goes...
What has usually been a fairly balanced discussion on this thread has
shown a dramatic inclination towards the bullish side in recent weeks. I
believe this is because many of the cautionary posters moved on when the
stock went from $35 to $7. To just throw a small bit of realism in here,
consider this string of numbers:
6-6-7-8-8 10-14-19
The first five numbers are SYSF earnings per share in pennies for the
last five quarters. The next three numbers are the quarterly estimates
for the remainder of the year. The 10 is the number for the July quarter
ended yesterday. The 14 is the IBES estimate for next year. The 19 is
the number you need to make the year come out at the 51 cent estimate.
As you can see, SYSF should now be on the verge of a major acceleration
in growth going into the next few quarters. Is this realistic? What
products are driving those dramatic quarterly increases? SystemWizard
was the product of the future. Unfortunately, it has not made any
inroads as of yet, and is still the product of the future. While it may
be the hottest thing since sliced bread, there is little evidence that
it will contribute meaningfully to earnings this year. Even if a new
Dell agreement is announced today (and the stock may move up if such an
announcement is made, because SYSF is seldom asked "how much per
license"), the deployment (and revenue) would be many months away. USB
is having a tough go of it without Microsoft's next NT release that
supports the technology. Revenue possible in this area? Absolutely.
Meaningful revenue this year? It's getting pretty late...
The point I am trying to make is that the 51 cents for the year appears
to be a stretch. If I had to make a prediction, I would call for SYSF to
make the 10, and then have H&Q and Volpe lower numbers. It happened
after the first quarter - made the number, lowered estiimates - and the
stock got clocked.
As I said, just one of those increasingly rare cautionary posts...
Mark K. |
