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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 259.65+2.3%Jan 23 3:59 PM EST
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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (123832)6/16/2004 1:10:13 AM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Elmer,

You're exactly right but it's impossible to know Intel's actual capacity so how can you run the numbers? They could have really bad yields but nobody's predicting a big jump in Intel P4 volume so there's no need to explain an increase.

Hmm... is it because Intel yields are terrible and are likely to stay that way? Intel should be producing 20M CPUs (mix of Dothan / Prescott / Northwood) from each 300mm fab, and Intel is going from 1 to 4 IIRC. So Intel should be selling 80M CPUs per quarter, and pricing them to sell that many. (If your line of reasoning is to be applied to Intel).

People here are predicting a jump in AMD CPU volume so it's reasonable to ask why they aren't shipping so many now.

I think people are predicting increase in K8 volume, and at best modest increase of overall volume, from a little below 8M range to 9 - 10M range, well, at least I predict that.

Why not just say the demand isn't very strong and leave it at that, except that doesn't explain where the new demand is going to come from.

Demand for K7 seems to be going from poor to somewhat OK, (mainly due to better economy) but still way below potential supply. K8 demand has been improving recently to the point where AMD seems to be with low inventory, which is where the additional demand is coming from, and in a month or 2, this demnand will be met with the new 90nm supply.

Joe
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