Sullivan - WE'VE LOST THE IRAQIS: The latest poll of Iraqis - skewed because it doesn't include the Kurds - is nonetheless bleak news. Paul Bremer will have spent over a year losing legitimacy completely. The Iraqis still have trust in the Iraqi security forces, while they have little or no trust in the CPA (it has an approval rating of 11 percent). (On the other hand, they also distrust the U.N., giving it only slightly higher grades than the loathed Americans.) 81 percent of Iraqis now think better of Moqtadr al Sadr than they did three months ago (but only 2 percent would elect him president). Allawi scores 24 percent support; al Sadr gets 67 percent. A staggering 92 percent view the Coalition forces as "occupiers" as opposed to 2 percent who consider them "liberators;" and 55 percent say they would feel more safe if the Coalition forces left (that number was 11 percent last November). It doesn't get more decisive a judgment than that.
SILVER LININGS? Hard to find - but they do exist. 63 percent are happy to have an interim Iraqi government after June 30; 51 percent feel "very safe" in their neighborhoods; 64 percent say that the conflicts in Fallujah and Karbala have made Iraq more unified; 51 percent are now more interested in joining the Iraqi security forces than they were three months ago; 87 percent believe that the Iraqi security forces will be capable of keeping order without the help of the coalition forces. Abu Ghraib didn't have much of an impact. Most Iraqis say that the abuses are what they expect from Americans (54 percent believe all Americans are like Lynndie England). But the fundamental reason that U.S. forces are opposed is because they are viewed as an occupation, not because of their conduct. Most believe that the violence is a function of a collapse in respect for the Coalition forces and a function of external meddling (which gets it roughly right). The obvious conclusion is that we have lost the window of opportunity to use the good will gained from the ouster of Saddam to leverage a pro-American democracy in non-Kurdish Iraq. But a democracy is still possible, and it's hard to think of a more rational way forward than the one now proposed. The task now is to achieve some kind of workable pluralist, non-Islamist government that will not be a major anti-American force in the region. That's much better than leaving Saddam in power; but it's far less than we might once have hoped for. Maybe in a decade or so, we'll see the real fruits of this noble, flawed experiment. I'm still hoping.
- 12:24:15 AM
SANTORUM MOVES: It appears Senator Rick Santorum will try and get a vote on the Federal Marriage Amendment in the Senate just before the Democratic Convention. The limited goal now is to use this issue against Democratic Senators especially in the South. That, of course, was always part of the game-plan. You will recall that, completely coincidentally, the Defense of Marriage Act was also introduced in the summer before a presidential election in 1996. On the bright side, I don't know many who believe that this can get the necessary 67 votes; and one reason some in the House want the Senate vote is to declare the FMA dead and so avoid ever having to vote on it. But for Santorum, Rove and Dobson, this will now become a bi-ennial ritual - a means to gin up social conservative votes and energy before elections. They're foolish, I think. By introducing the FMA, the Santorumites have changed the topic from gay marriage as such to the topic of amending the Constitution. John Kerry's position - against gay marriage but against the FMA - is not an electoral loser. It's closer to the American center on this subject than George W. Bush is. |
