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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: glenn_a who wrote (15334)	6/16/2004 10:30:54 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) of 110194

<So (a) what's the endgame here? And (b) what's the likely timeframe for the "end game" scenario to unravel?> You have two drivers: 1. full scale money printing, 2 shortages, that to me points to severe F3IP (fully funded fed inflation program) price rationing in key commodities. I think you key on just a few indicators and try and ignore MoP noise. Indicators are the regularly inventory reports on copper, lead, nickel, tin, kitcometals.com nat gas, and oil, and secondly the ACTIONS (not talk) of the Fed. Actions are not so much the rates that everybody is focused on, but debt monetization, federalreserve.gov and permanent and temporary market activities. ny.frb.org bullandbearwise.com Thirdly keep an eye on spec positions, commitmentsoftraders.com as you need to be somewhat careful of "offside trades", where everybody is already in the water. Then just strap on a seat belt.

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