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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (15737)	6/17/2004 12:39:06 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95546

Hi RtS, I have learned to value your comservative and disciplined posts. As mine are historically optimistic -yours are often very cautious. When studying 98 and SCE stocks,as you point out, the negative market sentiment in October was much more negative than now. However the turn that occurred in early October of 98 was very fast and it turned on a rebound of order backlog.Many companies still reported sick earnings on the Q4 of 98. None the less the backlogs grew,Q4 has throw in the sink and don't pay taxes,and 99 rocked up and never looked back. We all know 99-00 was an overblown distribution top and much excess capacity has gratefully been put to use. I believe the excess capacity has varied by product and production line.This has resulted in a less robust reversal and a less painfull bottom. The bottom has been less painfull because I think we saw a faile rally bottom in July and October of 02. As I recall the Rally that topped in 97 failed all through 98 until the bottom was reached in 98. I think long term that the major distribution top experinced in 00 will give us longer recoveries (much like the triple bottoms of 01 and 02) AND longer consolidations - much like we're seeing now. No fast reversals -just because backorders have popped up. Most ebery one is once bit and twice shy and the rest of us just want the good ole GOGO days back one more time so we can sell at the top. I think we need to lear to invest and not speculate. We must relearn long term investing. We must place a premium on PATIENCE. Most final tops occur after sevearl rallies correct and we see 4-5 bases form and violate up to the top. I think what we have now is just the first rally that is holding and giving us a correction instead of NEWS DARN LOWS. This is significant. The longer it takes the higher the final blow off top will be. I can be aptient knowing that. I know that longer consolidations result in higher tops. We are simply at the first sideways consolidation after major blowoff top in 00. The longer it goes the better it will be. Oh yes - always expect a final shakeout - it will be your last great perfect buy area. The next great "add to" spot will be a breakout to new highs - always much riskier. I don't think we should expect the same levels of volatility that we saw back just before the great blowoff top like we saw in 98. I expect we should see boring sideways consolidation.Investors like to see this - speculators can't stand it. I think this market needs more investors and patience. I think it looks good and I hope it slos down and builds strength. If you own any stocks - go to the monthly charts and see if you favorite doesn't dip before it has a nice move to a new higher level of consolidation. If it does dip before a rise - how is your attitude? If you like it at 19 will you love it at 17?? Will you be a buyer on a dip or will you lose your position?? Earnings are getting stronger,faster,than I've ever seen before. GDP is rocketing - productivity is shattering past levels of improvement. Are you/we investing or speculating. Now is a time for careful accumulation on dips. I don't think we should expect to see the volatility that was associated at the top of a major market cycle (99-00) I think we should embrace longer terms and dips that test / violate monthly support levels. Over time - we'll be very rich - If we're just patient. As always I greatly value your sincere and well thoguht out posts. Keep checking me - I need it.<smile> Bob

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